Fay not finished with Florida yet

Today, veteran hurricane forecaster Bill Gray will ring a bell at his daily forecasting meeting as he always does on Aug. 20 to mark the start of the serious season.

And Tropical Storm Fay will threaten to boomerang back toward Florida's east coast, where it could strike St. Augustine with Category 1 force on Thursday.

The next six weeks are typically the busiest of the Atlantic basin hurricane season, and Sept. 10 is the historic peak date for landfalls.

The Atlantic Ocean reaches its peak warmth in September and cold fronts that bring fall weather to northern states interact with the high pressure system that would normally shield Florida from hurricanes, pushing it back and forth to steer storms into the coast.

The steering winds shift every day, with rapid shifting possible in the span of just a week. Wind shear and dry air fluctuate.

Anything is possible. But certain scenarios are more likely, according to the historic odds. In July, storms originating off the coast of Africa can be pulled back to sea before reaching land, such as Hurricane Bertha.

In August, those storms begin to follow tracks deep south in the Caribbean or just east of Florida's east coast. September storms have historically tracked back to sea or into the Gulf of Mexico.

Storms begin to spring up in the Caribbean in October, leaving Florida's west coast especially vulnerable.

Already, forecasters are watching another storm, a tropical wave halfway across the Atlantic, that could develop into a tropical storm by the weekend.

It is unclear whether that storm will follow Fay's track. Forecasters say it is still too early to tell whether conditions will be right.

What happened to Fay?

Tropical Storm Fay could have been much stronger, and the circumstances that kept it from coming ashore as a hurricane may not protect Florida in the future.

Fay landed south of Naples at 5 a.m. Tuesday with winds of about 60 mph.

Six more hours in the warm Gulf waters and it could have been a Category 1, forecasters said.

"Fay tried to become a hurricane," said Eric Blake, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center. "It just ran into land before that happened."

As the most dangerous stretch of hurricane season begins, the reasons Fay spent so little time in the Gulf after crossing Cuba are as likely as they are unlikely to occur again.

Fay shut down schools and businesses around the region and left more than 12,000 people without power in Collier County. Heavy rains caused inland flooding as Fay moved north, and at least two tornadoes touched down on the east coast.

But Fay could have been like Hurricane Charley from August 2004. That Category 4 devastated Charlotte County, which is still rebuilding.

Or Fay could have been like Hurricane Wilma in 2005, the fourth Category 5 of a record-breaking year. It caused flooding and was blamed for deaths when it landed as a major hurricane on Cape Romano, also in August.

Fay killed an estimated 50 people when it crossed the Caribbean. Most of the dead drowned in a bus attempting to cross a swollen river.

"We dodged a bullet," said Wayne Sallade, director of emergency management for Charlotte County, on Tuesday after monitoring Fay for a potential hit near Punta Gorda.

Fay originated in the deep tropics, off the coast of Africa where the most destructive storms generally form, during a year when all major forecasters point to an above-average season. Sea surface temperatures are warm. Wind shear in the central Atlantic is light enough to help storms make the journey from Cape Verde to the Caribbean.

But just as Fay began to approach the eastern Caribbean Sea last week, it encountered a bout of dry, dusty air that prevented it from circulating. By the time it became a tropical storm on Friday it was bearing down on the island of Hispaniola -- a land mass that knocked down the strength Fay was struggling to gather.

Forecasters thought the storm might have time to build again by soaking in the warm waters off the southern coast of Cuba, but Fay hit land: a peninsula jutting from the island's southeast side and then crossed north over the broadest section of the island.

When Fay emerged near the Florida Keys it was sloppy, sprawling and ill-equipped to become a hurricane given the short amount of time it spent in the water before landing.

It usually takes a Category 2 storm -- Charley was already a Category 3 -- to battle Cuba and come out swinging on the other side, said Jeff Masters, lead forecaster with the Weather Underground.

"Had it been 5 degrees further north and not gone over those land areas, it would have been a whole lot worse," said Gray, the hurricane forecaster from Colorado State University. "You could have had major problems in Florida."

Said Blake: "If it had just moved a little west."

By the time Fay hit Cape Romano at 5 a.m. Tuesday, it still needed another 6 to 12 hours of fuel to become a hurricane.

Fay might have had that time if a pressure ridge protecting the coast had not shifted earlier than expected Sunday.

A low pressure system pushed east a high pressure system protecting Florida just in time to steer Fay toward the far southwest coast.

A landing farther north, in Punta Gorda, Sarasota or Tampa Bay, would have given Fay the time it needed to grow.

"Another full day over water, it would have been at least a Category 1 or 2 hurricane," Masters said.